Emission Prediction, Global Stocktake, and NDC Update: CO-STIRPAT Dynamic System

This analysis proposes a prediction framework for estimating the probability of fulfilling nationally determined contributions (NDC). The framework using conventional empirical methodology (CO-STIRPAT, bootstrapping sampling, and system dynamics) is employed to project the paths of carbon emissions up to 2030. Applying this approach to data from the Republic of Korea (ROK) shows that increasing the share of green energy alone may not be enough to meet NDC targets by 2030. Additional efforts are required to adopt advanced climate technologies related to carbon intensity and energy efficiency, given the predicted economic conditions until 2030. Alternatively, it may be appropriate for ROK to slow down the pace at which it raises its NDC. Our prediction framework can provide information that can motivate countries to reevaluate whether the ambition level of its target is compatible with the projected economic conditions and to set more reasonable goals in their subsequent NDCs.