Strategic planning for the second era of the HIV epidemic
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Implication
Mathematical modelling study demonstrates that scaling back population screening delays virtual elimination in South Africa, highlighting the need for strategic resource allocation.
Key Points
- Scaling back general population screening delays progress toward virtual hiv elimination and increases long-term mortality, despite offering immediate financial savings.
- Projected targets require 29.3 billion dollars annually by 2025 across developing nations, whereas service reductions raise long-term antiretroviral therapy costs.
- Mathematical model simulation using the Thembisa model projects epidemic trajectories through 2100, tracking demographic patterns, treatment rates, and transmission.
- Highlights the necessity of targeted testing and expanded pre-exposure prophylaxis in high-incidence settings, warning against short-term fiscal disengagement.
Cite This Study
Bekker et al. (2024) studied this question.