When Will They Know What They Don’t Know? Political knowledge and the Infamous Dunning-Kruger Effect

The Dunning-Kruger effect describes that low performers tend to overestimate and high performers tend to underestimate their ability and that on average low performers provide less accurate estimates of their ability than high performers. Based on data from N = 1,047 students in Grade 7 (n = 613) and Grade 10 (n = 434), we examined whether the Dunning-Kruger effect exists with regard to high school students’ political knowledge, whether the effect is different in Grade 7 and Grade 10, and how teachers’ behavior (i.e., cognitively activating and motivating teaching) affects students’ judgement accuracy and judgement direction. The results show that the Dunning-Kruger effect exists in both grade levels. Furthermore, visual and statistical examination of the data suggest that the pattern of data is very similar in both grade levels. Finally, we further find that perceived motivational quality is associated with judgement accuracy, but also with overconfidence. Perceived cognitive activation is negatively associated with judgement accuracy. Through the usage of two-cohort data, this study applies a novel approach and bears important implications for research on the Dunning-Kruger effect. Furthermore, the results regarding the teachers’ behavior provide important insights for educational practice in civic education.