Analysis of the Factors Influencing the Price Fluctuation of Chilli Chilli in the Keputanran Market, Surabaya

Background: Fluctuations in the price of chilies can be caused by many factors, such as changes in the growing season, unstable weather for farmer production, changes in demand from other countries, and so on. Therefore, farmers and traders in the retail market must pay attention to market conditions and the surrounding environment to be able to predict chili price fluctuations and implement appropriate strategies to deal with these fluctuations. Purpose: to find out the factors that influence the price fluctuations of cayenne pepper in the Keputran Surabaya market Research Method: In this research the type used is the explanatory method. The data used is in the form of a time series starting from 2018 to 2020 (in monthly data), by taking published data or archives from the Agriculture Office, Industry and Trade Service, and the Tegalsari District Central Statistics Agency. The data analysis used in this study is Multiple Linear Regression Analysis. Result: There are fluctuations in the price of cayenne pepper at Pasar Keputran Surabaya, the price set by traders varies quite a bit every year. It can be seen that the average price of cayenne pepper for the last 3 years in 2021 is IDR 14,000 per kilogram in September and from August 2022 to June 2023 there has been an increase of IDR 85,000. Factors influencing fluctuations in the price of cayenne pepper on the market Keputran Surabaya of the three independent variables, there are all variables that have a significant effect on price fluctuations of cayenne pepper in the Keputran Surabaya market, farmers' buying prices (X1) p=0.007, total production (X1) p= 0.001 and inflation (X3) p=0.004 . Conclusion: There are fluctuations in the price of cayenne pepper at the Surabaya Keputran Market, the prices set by traders vary quite a bit every year. The factors that influence price fluctuations of cayenne pepper at the Keputran Surabaya Market from the three independent (independent) variables are all variables that have a significant effect on price fluctuations cayenne pepper at the Keputran market in Surabaya.