Examining the Impact of COVID-19 on Unit Bid Price of Reclaimed Asphaltic Concrete Items Regarding Georgia Highway Maintenance Project through Change Point Detection

The outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020 caused global panic with numerous consequent changes. The high fluctuation of construction bid costs illustrated the struggle to reflect such changes in the construction field. Although a new era of post-COVID is soon to arrive, cost inflation, labor shortage, and pent-up construction demands show that the construction industry is still suffering from the pandemic. This paper examines the impact of COVID on construction projects, specifically Georgia highway maintenance projects, by analyzing the unit bid price of the recycled asphaltic concrete pay items from Oman Systems. A spline regression was employed to examine the overall trend of the pay items, and residuals from the regression detrending are used as an input for cumulative sum (CUSUM) charting. A prominent mean shift in the price residuals was detected in 2021 with a lag of a year after the outbreak of the pandemic, indicating significant deviation in the price. This investigation is expected to provide insight into more accurate cost estimate of highway projects and more-informed investment decisions accounting for variability and uncertainty in the aftermath of COVID-19.