March 15, 2024Open Access

Robust reconstruction of historical climate change from permafrost boreholes

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Ground surface temperatures likely warmed by 5 to 9°C between 1750–1855 and 2012, while ignoring active layer dynamics causes cool biases.
Neglecting latent heat introduces biases of -1 to -1.5°C in cold settings and up to -2 to -3°C when active layer thickening exceeds 200 cm.
Assessment using numerical modeling of two-phase heat transport combines an ensemble-based method for approximate Bayesian inference.
Highlights the necessity of including seasonal freeze-thaw cycles and active layer dynamics in permafrost borehole temperature histories.

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Implication

Observational analysis reveals ground surface temperatures likely rose 5 to 9°C in northeastern Siberia, highlighting the importance of latent heat effects.

Cite This Study

Groenke et al. (2024) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/68e73ec2b6db6435876b7e06 https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.171052470.06118695/v1

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Implication

Observational analysis reveals ground surface temperatures likely rose 5 to 9°C in northeastern Siberia, highlighting the importance of latent heat effects.

Robust reconstruction of historical climate change from permafrost boreholes

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Robust reconstruction of historical climate change from permafrost boreholes

Key Points

Discussion

Implication

Cite This Study