Contextualizing Lives and Historical Time: Examining Changes in the Transition to Adulthood and Age-Arrest Trajectories from the 1960s to 2018

Objectives: The changing nature and timing of adult role acquisition during the transition to adulthood over the past several decades may hold implications for criminal offending as adult roles are fundamental to theories of desistance. This research explores whether changes in adult role attainment during young adulthood are associated with the changes in the level and slope of the age-arrest trajectory over the past half-century. Methods: Combining US Census and Uniform Crime Report data, we map the average rate of adult role attainment (e.g., marriage, parenthood, labor force, independent living) and aggregate age-arrest trajectories among young adults (ages 18-24) biennially from 1960 to 2018. We fit a multilevel growth curve model where ages are nested within years to examine whether variation in the aggregate age-arrest trajectory is associated with variation in the attainment of adulthood. Results: At the macro level, periods with higher levels of adult role attainment are associated with a swifter decline in the young adult arrest rate but not the level. Conclusions: This research positions sociohistorical context at the center of life course criminological inquiry and highlights how historical shifts in the attainment and timing of adult social roles can alter behavioral patterns during the transition to adulthood.