The COVID-19 Pandemic and Internet Searches for Divorce with Stay-at-Home Behavior as a Mediator: A Multinational Longitudinal Study (Preprint)

BACKGROUND Amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, varying impacts on family dynamics have been observed, with an intriguing paradox of declining divorce rates despite increased strains such as intimate partner violence. OBJECTIVE This study investigates the pandemic's influence on divorce contemplations through internet search behaviors across 45 countries over an extended period, considering the role of stay-at-home behavior and national income levels. METHODS A retrospective analysis was conducted using Google Trends data on divorce search volumes and Google Location History for stay-at-home behavior, alongside COVID-19 death rates, from March 2020 to October 2022. A causal mediation analysis explored the mediation effect of stay-at-home behavior on the relationship between the pandemic's severity and divorce-related searches. RESULTS Across all countries, the initial two years of the pandemic saw a significant association between COVID-19 death rates and a decrease in divorce search volumes, without a notable mediation effect. In the third year, the mediation effect of stay-at-home behavior became significantly positive. Notably, in high-income countries, this mediation effect became increasingly significant, contrasting with middle-income countries where the initial negative association between COVID-19 death rates and divorce searches weakened over time. CONCLUSIONS The interplay between the pandemic and stay-at-home behavior on marital reconsideration transitions from acting as a protective buffer to facilitating an increase in divorce contemplations. This underscores the importance of adaptable support strategies in response to changing societal dynamics.