Density-based evolutionary model of the space debris environment in low-Earth orbit

Lethal untrackable debris objects pose the highest risk to the sustainability of the space environment, and thus, shall be included in the assessment of the long-term effect of mitigation and remediation measures to the space debris problem. The introduction of centimetre-sized particles in the debris evolutionary models represents a challenge from a computational cost point of view. To answer this need, this work proposes a novel probabilistic debris environment propagator. The method classifies the objects population into intact objects and fragmentation debris. The evolution of the former population is retrieved through an individual definition of each object's mission profile. A continuum approach is adopted for the characterisation of the fragments, whose density distribution in orbital elements is propagated in time through the continuity equation. The intrinsic computational efficiency of the density-based fragments cloud models is leveraged to make the method agnostic to the lowest fragments size considered. A second classification of the population of intact objects into species, such as payloads, rocket bodies, mission related objects and constellations, ensures a faithful replication of their orbit evolution. Fragmentation debris caused by intact objects explosion and accidental fragments-intact object collision are included in a probabilistic fashion at the detected fragmentation epoch, to account for their feedback effect onto the environment. The model is applied to estimate the evolution of the space debris population in low-Earth orbit up to 200 years from the reference epoch, with and without the inclusion of a future launch traffic pattern, and considering a different fulfilment of the post-mission disposal phase.