Prediction of neovascular age-related macular degeneration recurrence using optical coherence tomography images with a deep neural network

Abstract Neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) can result in blindness if left untreated, and patients often require repeated anti-vascular endothelial growth factor injections. Although, the treat-and-extend method is becoming popular to reduce vision loss attributed to recurrence, it may pose a risk of overtreatment. This study aimed to develop a deep learning model based on DenseNet201 to predict nAMD recurrence within 3 months after confirming dry-up 1 month following three loading injections in treatment-naïve patients. A dataset of 1076 spectral domain optical coherence tomography (OCT) images from 269 patients diagnosed with nAMD was used. The performance of the model was compared with that of 6 ophthalmologists, using 100 randomly selected samples. The DenseNet201-based model achieved 53.0% accuracy in predicting nAMD recurrence using a single pre-injection image and 60.2% accuracy after viewing all the images immediately after the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd injections. The model outperformed experienced ophthalmologists, with an average accuracy of 52.17% using a single pre-injection image and 53.3% after examining four images before and after three loading injections. In conclusion, the artificial intelligence model demonstrated a promising ability to predict nAMD recurrence using OCT images and outperformed experienced ophthalmologists. These findings suggest that deep learning models can assist in nAMD recurrence prediction, thus improving patient outcomes and optimizing treatment strategies.