Swedish intelligence, Russia and the war in Ukraine: anticipations, course, and future implications

As the sole plausible military threat facing Sweden, the Soviet Union and then Russia have consistently been at the top of Swedish intelligence collection priorities. In fact, understanding Russia and its military forces well is a source of pride and self-perceived comparative advantage of the Swedish intelligence community. This article contextualizes Swedish intelligence collection on Russia, including its Cold War antecedents and the persistent counterintelligence threat. It then describes Swedish intelligence reporting in anticipation of the war in Ukraine, including a reported misjudgement that Russia would ultimately not conduct a full-scale war of aggression against Ukraine in its entirety. This 'intelligence failure' was reportedly based on the assessment that Russia had assembled insufficient military capabilities to subjugate Ukraine, and that such an operation would be too risky and costly. Coming full circle in again beginning to focus mainly on great power competition and military capabilities in its near abroad, Swedish military intelligence has since reported valuable intelligence on Russian military capabilities, drawing on a combination of collection capabilities.