Analysis of Carbon Balance Patterns and Driving Factors in China’s Mega Cities – A Case Study of Shenzhen

The impact of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and terrestrial ecosystems CO2 sequestration on global climate change has been widely recognized, and regional carbon emission and sequestration patterns are receiving increasing attention. Accounting for regional anthropogenic carbon emissions and terrestrial ecosystems CO2 sequestration is beneficial for regional carbon peak and neutrality planning. This study utilizes yearbooks, government reports, soil survey data, and remote sensing data to calculate the annual CO2 emissions and absorption in the period 2010-2020 for Shenzhen, a typical highly urbanized area in China. We analyze the trend of net CO2 emissions and employ the Multilevel-LMDI method to examine the various driving factors influencing anthropogenic CO2 emissions in Shenzhen. Subsequently, emission reduction measures are proposed separately from the emission and absorption perspectives. From 2010 to 2020, Shenzhen emitted a total of 10.82 billion tons of CO2, with terrestrial ecosystems absorbing 15.82 million tons. The net emission was 10.67 billion tons, showing an annual increase until reaching its peak in 2018 (1.12 billion tons). The primary drivers of Shenzhen's anthropogenic CO2 emissions growth are population (5,150.42 million tons) followed by economic factors (4,279.66 million tons). Per capita food consumption (23.77 million tons) and dietary structure (6.11 million tons) also play crucial roles. The main drivers for CO2 reduction are energy emission intensity and ecosystem carbon sinks. The study indicates that Shenzhen has entered the carbon peak phase. Controlling the growth of carbon emissions through reducing energy intensity and optimizing the energy structure has been effective. terrestrial ecosystems have played a significant role in carbon removal. However, considering the substantial anthropogenic carbon emissions, further efforts are needed in future planning to achieve ‘dual carbon goals’ by reduce population regulation, carbon emissions and enhance terrestrial CO2 absorption.