Integration of socio-economic aspects in the development and holistic assessment of national CDR portfolios

A broad range of different mitigation measures are necessary to achieve immediate and drastic emissions reductions in all sectors called for in the Paris Agreement. These targets underscore the need for Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) measures, also known as negative emissions, since hard-to-abate residual emissions are very likely to remain until the end of the century. Even though CDR options are urgently needed, it remains unclear how the implementation will affect future land use and the associated provision of food, material, and other ecosystem services. While the knowledge about biogeophysical and biogeochemical potentials of land-based CDR and their impacts on the earth system (e.g., on water, soil carbon) is increasing, there is still a lack of understanding about how the socio-economic context influences these aspects. The interdisciplinary research project STEPSEC (Scrutinizing the feasibility of TErrestrial CDR Potentials under Socio-Ecological Constraints) therefore investigates the feasibility of the land-based CDR options BECCS (Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage), forest management and afforestation/reforestation under socio-ecological constraints in Germany. As part of the project, three participatory stakeholder workshops are conducted in order to develop: 1) qualitative and quantitative CDR-related visions of the future land system in Germany, and 2) narratives on different land-use-related Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) at national level. In a second step, their implications are combined with climate change scenarios using a newly developed agent-based model (CRAFTY-DE) to comprehensively simulate the development of the German land system. CRAFTY-DE uses different types of agents with specific land management behaviours for different land use types. The developed SSPs are incorporated as socio-economic location factors in the form of quantifiable indicators. The natural suitability of the land surface for different land use types and CDR options is based on the results of dynamic vegetation and biodiversity models. CRAFTY-DE delivers potential pathways of land use development for Germany. In a last step, the feasibility and desirability of these pathways are assessed against socio-ecological and ethical context conditions using a newly developed integrated and multidimensional assessment framework. The assessment results provide input for decision making of various stakeholders. The talk will focus on the challenges and opportunities through the inclusion of social sciences in environmental science modelling.