Evaluating Bio-based CDR Pathways through an Integrated Energy-land Optimization Framework for Germany

Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) is increasingly recognized as a critical component in achieving climate neutrality, especially for industrialized countries like Germany. This study presents the integration of diverse CDR deployment scenarios into an existing bio-based CDR (bioCDR) optimization modeling framework tailored to the German context. We extend the model to incorporate scenario-based constraints reflecting varying policy, technological, and land-use assumptions. By simulating a range of future CDR pathways including afforestation, BECCS (Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage), and biochar, we assess their technical feasibility, economic viability, and interaction with Germany’s energy and land systems. The results demonstrate that achieving high levels of negative emissions to address residual emissions in Germany requires a combination of engineered and nature-based CDR pathways rather than reliance on a single technology class. Natural sinks provide a reliable removal baseline of approximately 45 Mt CO2/year by 2050 and BECCS is the scalable lever to exceed the threshold of 60 Mt CO2 removal required for climate neutrality in Germany.