Estimating GRACE-FO orbit perturbations with numerical weather prediction models

Satellites in Earth orbit are exposed to Earth radiation, consisting of reflected solar and emitted thermal radiation, thereby exerting a radiation pressure force that causes acceleration and affects the orbits. Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On (GRACE-FO) mission aiming to retrieve the Earth gravity potential is critically dependent on accounting for all non-gravitational forces, including the Earth radiation. Although weather-of-the-day; e.g., clouds and their properties, has a major role in Earth radiation pressure, only climatology has been used so far to represent this force. Using climatological data doesnt account for orbit perturbations owing to weather-related transient changes in the Earth radiation pressure. We show here that the top-of-atmosphere radiation fluxes computed with a numerical weather prediction model explain most of the measured variations in the radial acceleration of the GRACE-FO satellite. Our physics-based modelling corrects a hitherto unexplained lack of power spectral density in the measured accelerations. For example, we can accurately model the accelerations associated with a tropical storm in Indian Ocean in December 2020, which would not be possible when using climatological data. Our results demonstrate that using a global numerical weather prediction model significantly improves the simulation of non-gravitational effects in the satellites orbit. This advancement will allow more precise gravity retrieval and its applications in Earth sciences.