Inelastic strain efficiency of small earthquakes as an indicator for proximity of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (M7.3)

Size distribution of earthquakes, characterized by the power law decay (b-value), sometime displays the major earthquakes before their occurrence. The b-value reflect state of stress and proximity of fault failure condition according to previous studies. However, the causes are difficult to separate each other. This study proposes an additional indicator reflecting the proximity. Seismic moment release in a volume by small earthquake indicates inelastic strain. The efficiency of inelastic strain on stress loaded medium exhibits proximity to strength of the medium based on Mohr diagram and Coulomb failure condition. Thus, we adopt the efficiency as the indicator. We examine b-value and the efficiency variation in pre- and post- seismic activity of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence. Weighted b-value distribution by the efficiency captured the initiation point of the Kumamoto earthquake. The result suggests utilizing both b-value and the efficiency contribute to improving earthquake alerts and disaster mitigation.