Hydrologic responses to climate change and implications for reservoirs in the source region of the Yangtze River

Understanding the hydrological impacts of climate change is essential for robust and sustainable water management. This study assessed the hydrologic impacts of climate change in the Jinshajiang River basin, the source region of the Yangtze River, using the historical observations and the future hydrologic simulations under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), deriving from a hydrological model. For the historical period, there is an increasing trend in precipitation, evapotranspiration, snowmelt, and consequently an increasing in streamflow in the upstream, whereas a decreased streamflow in the downstream catchment. For future scenarios, a warmer and wetter climate was projected for the basin throughout the 21st century, and correspondingly an overall increase in mean and extreme streamflow, with a larger magnitude in the far future than in the near future, and under SSP5-8.5 than SSP2-4.5. The projected remarkable increase in precipitation cause the transition in changing trend of streamflow compared with the historical period. The projected continuing decline in snowfall and snow water equivalent result in a significant advance and decrease in snowmelt, followed by an earlier and more concentrated peak streamflow in July, especially for the upstream catchment. Ultimately, reservoirs in the basin are expected to gain more inflows, however, with larger variability and more floods and hydrological droughts, which impose potential challenges on reservoir operations. These outcomes indicate the importance of adaptive water resources management in the melting water contributed basin to sustain and enhance its services under global warming.