Fingerprinting the AMOC and predicting a collapse

In a recent paper [2] we predicted a collapse of the AMOC as soon as mid-century at odds with assessments based on climate model scenarios. The prediction was based on the sub polar gyre fingerprint as a proxy for the AMOC as proposed by Ceasar et al. [2]. Several other fingerprints have been proposed, all showing early warning signals of a forthcoming tipping point [3]. Here we present a statistical analysis, optimally extracting the common signal in the different fingerprints in order to further solidify the assessments.  [1] Ditlevsen, P., Ditlevsen, S. Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Nat Commun 14, 4254 (2023) [2] Caesar, L., Rahmstorf, S., Robinson, A. et al. Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation. Nature 556, 191–196 (2018) [3] Boers, N. Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Nat. Clim. Chang. 11, 680–688 (2021)