Dynamics of the water-energy-cropland nexus in China from 2007 to 2017: Implications for the Dual Circulation Strategy

Natural resources are fundamental for socioeconomic development and sustainable development. However, our understanding on the dynamic connections of water resources, energy and cropland still remains unclear. This study developed a framework covering multi-sectoral and multi-product water-carbon-cropland nexus, identifying key areas for water, energy and cropland conservation by considering both the resource utilization efficiency and connections between provinces. The new framework revealed that the utilization efficiencies of the three resources improved from 2007 to 2017 in China, with the average values of the direct, indirect, and total coefficients of virtual water consumption, embodied carbon emmisions and virtual cropland use decreasing by 63.3%, 40.6% and 59.2%, respectively. Meanwhile, the inter-provincial connections of water-carbon-cropland nexus have weakened, with a downward trend of pull coefficients. Gansu, Ningxia, and Xinjiang were typical regions with high consumption in water, energy and cropland, with the average value of the total coefficients of the three resources nearly twice the national average. Xinjiang, Ningxia and Inner Mongolia were regions with weak water-energy-cropland connections, and their average pulling coefficient was about 36% of national average. Under the "dual circulation" development pattern of China, it’s necessary to improve resource utilization efficiency in the future by promoting economic cooperation between regions with strong connections and weak connections, and promoting the efficient utilization of resources for regions (e.g., Xinjiang and Gansu) under the help of developed regions (e.g., Beijing and Shanghai). This framework can further capture the food-energy-water nexus (FEW nexus) at urban, provincial and even global scales, and can be used as an important tool to identify the process of multiple sustainable development goals (SDGs 2, 6, 7 and 12).