Game based behavioral experiment to characterize behavioral biases in water decisions

Recent research in behavioral economics has identified a series of cognitive biases, where the decisions made by individuals diverge from the rational choice assumption and expected utility maximization theory. For example,  simplification bias neglects low-probability–high consequence (LP-HC) events because the perceived probability of risk is too low; myopia bias neglects adaptation measures with high upfront costs and long-term benefits in favor of near-term risks; and availability bias neglects LP-HC events until the consequences have had a direct impact. While broadly acknowledged within sociohydrology community, these biases remain poorly characterized and are often excluded from sociohydrological models. We bridge this gap by leveraging a recent web-based computer game, where players make farming decisions — including the purchase of crop insurance — to address hydroclimatic uncertainty in the context of climate change. We deploy the game on the mechanical turk platform to carry out behavioral experiments at a massive scale to understand the conditions under which these three biases emerge in water resources decisions.