Climate risk analysis for adaptation planning in Zambias agricultural sector

Climate change and climate extremes increasingly threaten agricultural production and thereby pose a serious risk to agricultural livelihoods, particularly in the Global South. In support of adaptation planning, science-based information on projected climate impacts and sound information on the suitability of adaptation options is needed. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of current and future climate-related risks in Zambia a country that is highly vulnerable to climate change due to its geographic location and the strong socio-economic dependency on agriculture. Using data from ten Global Climate Models (GCMs) under two climate change scenarios (SSP1-RCP2.6 and SSP3-RCP7.0), we analyze future trends in climatic conditions and model their impacts on agricultural yields and crop suitability. Moreover, the study evaluates two adaptation options to promote climate-resilience in the agricultural system i.e. 1) conservation agriculture and 2) a climate and agricultural extension service called PICSA (Participatory Integrated Climate Services for Agriculture). The evaluation includes biophysical, economic, financial and gender aspects to provide comprehensive and usable information that can inform adaptation policies on the ground. The study was co-designed together with stakeholders from Zambian governmental institutions, civil society, academia, the private sector, practitioners and development partners. Results show the strongest negative impacts of climate change in South Western Zambia where the strongest increases in temperature and dry conditions are projected. The projected impacts underline the need for strong adaptation efforts: 1) Conservation agriculture can buffer climate impacts in the near term and even increase sorghum yields by 25 to 31% in drought-prone areas in Zambia. It can play a vital role in adapting to increasingly extreme and dry climatic conditions. 2) The PICSA approach proved to be a highly economically beneficial adaptation option with each USD invested generating between 3.6 and 3.8 USD in benefits. In addition, the study reflects on lessons learned from interdisciplinary and stakeholder-driven research focusing not only on the Zambian context, but also on climate risk analyses that were conducted in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Ghana, Madagascar, Niger and Uganda.