Assessing the impact of forest fires on human health in Europe

Long term exposure to ambient PM2.5 (particulate matter less than 2.5 m in diameter) is associated with multiple health outcomes, including morbidity and mortality from respiratory, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, among other non communicable diseases and is the largest environmental health risk in Europe. While much attention globally has centered on reducing anthropogenic sources of ambient PM2.5 and other air pollutants, the significance of forest fires, capable of inducing extreme air pollution, was largely underestimated until recently, lacking credible mitigation strategies. Forest fires release various hazardous pollutants like black carbon and organic aerosols, potentially posing greater health risks compared to other sources of pollution. Our study delves into the escalating importance of forest fires as contributors to PM2.5 exposure in Europe across a thirty-year period (1990-2019), utilizing simulations from a global meso-scale dispersion model. Additionally, we evaluate the health impact resulting from PM2.5 due to forest fires, examining how this burden has changed over three decades in relation to shifts in mortality rates, demographics, forest fires, and PM2.5 exposure. Our calculations indicate a decrease in the additional number of deaths caused by exposure to ambient PM2.5 throughout Europe, dropping by 10,000 deaths annually. This decline is observed from 0.57 million deaths (with 95% confidence intervals between 0.44 - 0.75 million) in 1990 to 0.28 million deaths (ranging from 0.19 0.42 million) within the specified time frame.Through our sensitivity analyses, wherein we considered PM2.5 from forest fires as more hazardous compared to other sources, we found an increased relative contribution of forest fires to excess deaths. These results emphasize the urgent requirement for improved mitigation and adaptation strategies, along with the implementation of more sustainable forest management policies.