Abstract We have compiled data on coal mine accidents in China from 2000 to 2023 through official channels such as the National Coal Mine Safety Supervision Bureau. We conducted a statistical analysis on water-related accidents, studied the evolving trends of water-related accidents in China from 2000 to 2023, and specifically discussed the distribution characteristics and causes of major water-related accidents. The results indicate that the number of water-related accidents and the mortality rate showed a stepwise decrease from 2000 to 2023, displaying a negative correlation with the original coal production. Major water-related accidents exhibit distinct spatial and temporal features, with the most severe occurrences concentrated in Northeast, North China, and South China, particularly during the months of March to May and July to August, and daily between 9:00 and 12:00. Various types of water-related accidents occur in Chinese coal mines, with the most common being old goaf water inrush, and the highest average number of fatalities resulting from surface floods. Using the Holt model, we predicted that the mortality rate per million tons for water-related accidents in 2024 and 2025 would be 0.00133 and 0.00066, respectively, with coal production estimates of 49.68 billion tons and 51.13 billion tons. The predicted number of deaths caused by water-related accidents would be 6–7 people and 3–4 people, respectively.
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Lu et al. (2024) studied this question.
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