Elite deals prop up Kenya’s weak political stability

Significance Among other things, the three leaders discussed Odinga’s ambitions to become chairman of the African Union (AU) Commission. Alongside reform proposals made by a National Dialogue Committee (NADCO), Ruto’s support for Odinga’s AU bid aims to ease tensions following the contested 2022 elections. Impacts A sustained pact with Odinga would help mute criticism of tax increases, making it easier for Ruto to sustain unpopular fiscal measures. Possible legal challenges to NADCO proposals may bring Ruto’s government into fresh confrontation with the judiciary. If Odinga’s AU campaign is successful, it will intensify competition within the Azimio coalition to succeed him ahead of the 2027 elections.