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The intent of this paper is to provide an approach for growth projections of Built-In-Test (BIT) False Alarm rates on a project where this metric is commonly tracked or required. The methodology for this approach is provided and then proved out through a hypothetical study. It provides an approach by which a layperson in the respective field can use field data to characterize the false alarm frequency of a complex system with diagnostic capabilities. And this can provide a projection for the false alarm frequency of the system once the false alarm corrections have been implemented. It leverages reliability growth concepts for false alarm projections. The fundamental premise of this approach is that false alarm mitigations are implemented through software upgrades.
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Barta et al. (2024) studied this question.
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