Prospective Validation of a Simple Risk Score to Predict Hospitalization during the Omicron Phase of COVID-19

Introduction: We previously developed a simple risk score with 3 items (age, patient report of dyspnea, and any relevant comorbidity), and in this report validate it in a prospective sample of patients, stratified by vaccination status. Methods: Data were abstracted from a structured electronic health record of primary care and urgent care 8 patients with COVID-19 in the Lehigh Valley Health Network from 11/21/2021 and 10/31/2022 9 (Omicron variant). Our previously derived risk score was calculated for each of 19,456 patients, 10 and the likelihood of hospitalization was determined. Area under the ROC curve was calculated. Results: We were able to place 13,239 patients (68%) in a low-risk group with only a 0.16% risk of 13 hospitalization. The moderate risk group with 5622 patients had a 2.2% risk of hospitalization 14 and might benefit from close outpatient follow-up, whereas the high-risk group with only 574 15 patients (2.9% of all patients) had an 8.9% risk of hospitalization and may require further 16 evaluation. Area under the curve was 0.844. Discussion: We prospectively validated a simple risk score for primary and urgent care patients with COVID1919 that can support outpatient triage decisions around COVID-19.