Questioning whether seasonal advance of intense tropical cyclones since the 1980s truly exists

Shan et al. (2023) recently reported significant seasonal advances of intense tropical cyclones (TCs) in both the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) since the 1980s and emphasized the data insensitivity of this conclusion, based on the advanced Dvorak Technique-Hurricane Satellite (ADT-HURSAT) and the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) datasets. However, upon rigorously repeating the analysis procedure in Shan et al. (2023), we are unable to replicate their conclusion. Our analyses reveal that insignificant trends in median of intense TC occurrence dates (hereafter referred to as datẽintenseTC) are observed in the SH based on the ADT-HURSAT, and in both hemispheres based on the IBTrACS. In addition, we discover inconsistencies in datẽintenseTC trends between the two datasets, which primarily arise from the differences in identification of intense TC cases. The above discrepancies raise doubts about the reproducibility and validity of Shan et al.'s conclusions regarding the seasonal advance of intense TCs. Based on these findings, as well as the limitations of both datasets, we argue that the reported seasonal advance of intense TCs since the 1980s is inconclusive and further investigations with alternative datasets and approaches are needed.