Prospects of the Lublin Triangle After the Grain Deal Failure

The article analyses the current state of the Lublin Triangle with the forum facing a serious challenge of stability and unity for the first time after Russia’s withdrawal from the grain deal. The study focuses on both some statements of the Polish, Lithuanian and Ukrainian presidents within the framework of the Lublin Triangle and a number of trilateral declarations that have been adopted since the establishment of the format on July 28, 2020. The study points out the history of the Lublin Triangle development, as well as the ideological motives that prompted the Polish leadership to take the initiative to convene the forum. The article underlines that the Lublin Triangle status against the backdrop of the armed conflict in Ukraine was noticeably undermined after the Black Sea Grain Initiative failure, which, among other things, has already escalated tensions between Poland and Ukraine. The study concludes that the grain deal cancellation exposed the longstanding contradictions of the Lublin Triangle members, demonstrated Poland’s unwillingness to harm its own economic interests for the sake of supporting Ukraine and proved that the forum transformation into a unified and mutually beneficial union from a political, financial and cultural point of view is unlikely even in the distant future.