Spatial Downscaling of ERA5 Reanalysis Air Temperature Data Based on Stacking Ensemble Learning

High-resolution air temperature distribution data are of crucial significance for studying climate change and agriculture in the Yellow River Basin. Obtaining accurate and high-resolution air temperature data has been a persistent challenge in research. This study selected the Yellow River Basin as its research area and assessed multiple variables, including the land surface temperature (LST), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Digital Elevation Model (DEM), slope, aspect, longitude, and latitude. We constructed three downscaling models, namely, ET, XGBoost, and LightGBM, and applied a stacking ensemble learning algorithm to integrate these three models. Through this approach, ERA5-Land reanalysis air temperature data were successfully downscaled from a spatial resolution of 0.1° to 1 km, and the downscaled results were validated using observed data from meteorological stations. The results indicate that the stacking ensemble model significantly outperforms the three independent machine learning models. The integrated model, combined with the selected set of multiple variables, provides a feasible approach for downsizing ERA5 air temperature data. The stacking ensemble model not only effectively enhances the spatial resolution of ERA5 reanalysis air temperature data but also improves downscaled results to a certain extent. The downscaled air temperature data exhibit richer spatial texture information, better revealing spatial variations in air temperature within the same land class. This research outcome provides robust technical support for obtaining high-resolution air temperature data in meteorologically sparse or topographically complex regions, contributing significantly to climate, ecosystem, and sustainable development research.