Are younger buyers driving the housing boom? A geographic perspective on US home purchases, 2018-2021

Rapid growth in US housing prices has coincided with the large Millennial demographic group reaching peak homebuying age, leading some to speculate that new demand from younger buyers is putting upward pressure on home prices. This Research Note uses data from the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act mortgage data to examine where younger buyers are purchasing homes. Data show that the share of buyers under age 35 fell in more than half of US counties, including 45% of metropolitan counties. A county- and MSA-level regression analysis finds a null or slightly negative correlation between changes in the share of buyers under age 35 and changes in home prices, and a small positive effect on debt-to-income ratios from 2018 to 2021, providing little to no evidence that young buyers are pushing up home prices.