Comparative Analysis of Effective Supply Capacity Estimation Methods for Renewable Energy Generation in the Jeju Island Power Systems

As the penetration rate of renewable energy resources increases, the estimation of the supply capability of renewable energy generators has become an important factor in power system planning and operation. This paper compares and analyzes the methods for estimating the supply capability of renewable energy generation, specifically the PPCF(Peak-Period Capacity Factor) and ELCC(Effective Load Carrying Capacity) methods, using the Jeju power system as a case study. It was found that the ELCC, which reflects the uncertainty of power generation facilities, provides a more conservative estimation of the supply capability of renewable energy generation compared to the PPCF. Furthermore, the study confirmed the influence of the output time difference among renewable energy generators on their supply capability. The results of this study are expected to be used as basic data for planning and operating the power systems in Jeju.