A Resilient Integrated Resource Planning Framework for Transmission Systems: Analysis Using High Impact Low Probability Events

This paper presents a Resilient Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) framework for transmission systems, specifically focusing on the analysis of High Impact Low Probability (HILP) events. The framework addresses the need to assess and enhance the resilience of transmission networks in the face of extreme events. Conventional reliability-based planning methods typically average the impact of various outage durations, whereas resilience-oriented studies prioritize the analysis of events with significant consequences. Therefore, this work adopts a metric based on the proximity of outage lines to generators to select HILP events. The base resilience of the system is evaluated by calculating load curtailment in various network components resulting from HILP outage events. The transmission network is represented as an undirected graph, and graph theoretic technique is employed to identify islands with or without generators, which can potentially form microgrids. Expected Load Curtailment and Expected Critical Load Curtailment are introduced as metrics to measure the system's resilience. The framework also enables the re-evaluation of system resilience by incorporating additional resources to achieve desired resilience levels. Case studies on the IEEE 24-bus system demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed framework. Overall, the resilient IRP framework proposed in this paper provides valuable insights for optimizing resource placement and planning decisions, enhancing the robustness and resilience of transmission networks.