State Dependence in Material and Social Deprivation in European Single-Parent Households

Abstract This paper explores the dynamics of social exclusion as measured by material and social deprivation in the particularly exposed category of single-parent households. We aim to assess whether there is true state dependence in deprivation and the role of other household factors, as well as that of the macro-economic and social welfare scenario. We use 2015–2018 European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions longitudinal data to explore a large set of European countries. We estimate three-level dynamic probit models that enable us to account for micro- and country-level unobserved heterogeneity. Our results suggest that material and social deprivation is likely to be a trap for single-parent households and that this effect is stronger for these households than for those composed of two adults and children. Among single-parent households, those headed by a female are worse off than those headed by a male. The policy implications of these findings are also discussed.