Cause analysis of marine accidents based on HFACS and Bayesian networks

In order to further analyze the potential causes and influencing factors of Marine traffic accidents in Yangshan Port waters, 87 Marine traffic accidents above grade occurred in Yangshan Port waters from 2015 to 2021 were taken as data samples. A comprehensive Marine accident Analysis framework HFACS-BN (Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) and Bayesian Network (BN)) is established. In addition, the contribution degree and correlation of 4 primary nodes and 15 secondary nodes are quantified by the method of grey correlation degree analysis, and the possibility and severity of accidents are further analyzed to evaluate the potential impact of various factors on the occurrence of Marine traffic accidents. Finally, the reliability of the model is checked by cross-validation method. The results show that "the premise of unsafe behavior" is the key cause of Marine accidents and should be widely concerned. This study has important theoretical and practical significance for preventing and managing potential Marine accident risks.