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Abstract: Standards-based monitoring of student achievement assumes that the assessments measure relevant competencies and skills for educational success. Students who reach proficiency levels in the assessments designed to represent the standards should be more successful in their schooling career than students reaching lower proficiency levels. However, empirical evidence for the predictive validity of test results and, specifically, proficiency levels used in educational monitoring is scarce. We report associations between proficiency levels reached in a German large-scale educational monitoring study ( N = 1183, M age = 15.5 and 49% female) based on National Educational Standards for German and English and two indicators of school success observed afterwards. First, we describe the relation between proficiency levels and the highest achieved degree in secondary education. Second, we describe the relation between proficiency levels and grades in English and German exams, taken at the end of secondary level I as part of the central exit examination (Grade 10). Using ordered logistic regressions, we find a strong relation between proficiency levels measured by the tests and both outcomes. Results indicate, for example, that students who failed the minimum standard for the first secondary school-leaving certificate in German reading have twice the probability of leaving school without a degree compared to students who just passed the minimum standard. Our findings show that proficiencies assessed in the large-scale educational monitoring study have substantial predictive power for students' educational careers.
Jindra et al. (Fri,) studied this question.