Statistical analysis of the state and prospectsof industrial development in the Volga Federal district

Significant territorial differentiation in the socio-economic development of Russia's regions and federal districts requires careful statistical analysis and research to develop optimal strategies for reducing spatial polarization. The focus of this study is on the Volga Federal District, as a region with a long history of economic development and as an example of successful development of a peripheral territory distant from the capital. Historically, the economic structure of the region was shaped by the industrial development of Nizhny Novgorod and the Ural regions, as well as the predominantly agricultural nature of the remaining areas. However, in recent decades, several powerful industrial centers have emerged in the Volga region, transforming it into a predominantly industrial area in Russia. Empirical analysis has shown that the regions of the Volga Federal District maintain their industrial specialization and continue to play an important role in the country's overall industrial potential. However, retrospective analysis has also shown a gradual reduction in the share of these regions in all-Russian industrial production over time. Among the constituent entities of the federal district, the Republic of Tatarstan stands out with its significant improvement in industrial indicators between 1990 and 2023. This can be attributed to its large deposits of fuel and energy resources, which have contributed to its success. In contrast, most other regions within the district have seen a decline in their relative industrial development indicators on a national level. This decline can be explained by the lack of substantial mineral reserves, which limits the export and economic potential of these regions. Historically, the Volga Federal District has been a center for the manufacturing industry, particularly in mechanical engineering. In particular, mechanical engineering was in a vulnerable position during the transition to the market in the 1990s. Analysis of production indices using the chain method showed that the Volga Federal District regions only surpassed the level of industrial development in 1990 in 2013, on average.