New Metrics for Identifying Variables and Transients in Large Astronomical Surveys

A key science goal of large sky surveys such as those conducted by the Vera C. Rubin Observatory and precursors to the Square Kilometre Array is the identification of variable and transient objects. One approach is analyzing time series of the changing brightness of sources, namely, light curves. However, finding adequate statistical representations of light curves is challenging because of the sparsity of observations, irregular sampling, and nuisance factors inherent in astronomical data collection. The wide diversity of objects that a large-scale survey will observe also means that making parametric assumptions about the shape of light curves is problematic. We present a Gaussian process (GP) regression approach for characterizing light-curve variability that addresses these challenges. Our approach makes no assumptions about the shape of a light curve and, therefore, is general enough to detect a range of variable and transient source types. In particular, we propose using the joint distribution of GP amplitude hyperparameters to distinguish variable and transient candidates from nominally stable ones and apply this approach to 6394 radio light curves from the ThunderKAT survey. We compare our results with two variability metrics commonly used in radio astronomy, namely η ν and V ν , and show that our approach has better discriminatory power and interpretability. Finally, we conduct a rudimentary search for transient sources in the ThunderKAT data set to demonstrate how our approach might be used as an initial screening tool. Computational notebooks in Python and R are available to help deploy this framework to other surveys.