Into the Unknown!

When working a project, the one thing we can be confident about, is that there will be uncertainties and unknowns. It's hard enough to plan a car journey and guarantee an arrival time. Complex or novel projects will only be more challenging. On a project, late change can impact budgets and schedules. A Systems Engineer will consider the Known‐Knowns and the Known‐Unknowns. These are things they know. But what about the Unknown‐Knowns and the Unknown‐Unknowns? How can we determine what we don't know we don't know? Are there ways to improve their detection or protect ourselves from them? This paper looks at a range of studies to uncover the sources of Unknowns. Then it shall explore ways to improve the detection of them. Based on a study of over five hundred projects, we can begin to predict a likely level of unknowns. A project planner or budget owner can then protect themselves with Reserve for a Plausible Worst‐Case outcome. Detect what you can and protect yourself from what you don't yet know.