Geospatial population classification across the rural-urban continuum challenge narrative of where most food-insecure people are located

Abstract Global food security policies have long prioritized rural populations under the assumption that those communities are the most food-insecure. However, we estimate that of the 384.1 million food-insecure people living in the five low and middle-income countries evaluated here, most reside in urban and peri-urban areas (302.8 million) compared to rural areas (81.3 million). This challenges decades of rural-focused food security policy. Using an integrated methodology combining FAO's Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) survey with an implementation of the Degree of Urbanization (DEGURBA) using Worldpop gridded population data to produce people estimates across Afghanistan, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Pakistan, and Zambia, we find that only Zambia follows the traditional rural-dominant pattern while also showcasing distinct patterns of food insecurity within each country’s urban-rural continuum. These findings suggest fundamental misalignment between current policy frameworks and the geographic reality of food insecurity, requiring a recalibration of global food security policy.