How Should Property Investors Make Decisions Amid Heightened Uncertainty: Developing an Adaptive Behavioural Model Based on Expert Perspectives

In a significant transition from classical theories of efficient markets and perfectly rational investors, the recent literature has increasingly acknowledged the importance of the human element and external market conditions in decision-making. However, the application of adaptive market frameworks in the property sector remains underexplored. This gap is particularly pronounced in the commercial property market, where structural inefficiencies, such as information asymmetry and illiquidity, amplify decision-making complexity. Given that investor rationality tends to diminish as uncertainty and complexity increase, this study explored how private commercial property investors adapt their strategies amid heightened uncertainty. The perspectives of seven experienced property experts were thematically analysed to highlight recurring patterns, which were then integrated into a conceptual mind map. The findings reveal that while economic fundamentals are the constant drivers of capital allocation decisions, investors process these signals through the lens of adaptive behaviour based on intuition, experience, risk perceptions, and herding. This relationship becomes more pronounced under conditions of heightened uncertainty, where investors seek to supplement available information with sentiment due to weaker signals and declining confidence in fundamentals. Sustainable investing and technology integration also emerged as core considerations, but interest among private investors is subdued due to ambiguous value propositions regarding the long-term economic benefits of a green premium. These findings offer practical insights into how external market conditions influence property investment decisions and provide a platform for operational models of investment decision-making that integrate adaptive behaviour.