Near-Surface Temperature Prediction Based on Dual-Attention-BiLSTM

Current temperature prediction methods often focus on time-series information while neglecting the contributions of different meteorological factors and the context of varying time steps. Accordingly, this study developed a Dual-Attention-BiLSTM (a bidirectional long short-term memory network with dual attention mechanisms) network model, which integrates a bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) network model with random forest-based feature selection and two self-designed attention mechanisms. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate the influence of the attention mechanisms. This study focuses on Shijiazhuang City, China, which has a temperate continental monsoon climate with significant seasonal and daily variations. The data were sourced from ERA5-Land, comprising hourly near-surface temperature and related meteorological variables for the year of 2022. The results indicate that integrating the two attention mechanisms significantly improves the model’s prediction performance compared to using BiLSTM alone. The mean absolute error between simulation results ranges from 0.80 °C to 1.08 °C, with a reduction of 0.17 °C to 0.39 °C, and the root mean square error ranges from 1.17 °C to 1.37 °C, with a reduction of 0.12 °C to 0.22 °C.