Recent changes in public funding of in vitro fertilization in Poland and their expected implications

Introduction: In the context of persistently low fertility rates across Europe and increasing reproductive challenges, public funding of assisted reproductive technologies (ART) has emerged as a potential demographic intervention. Poland launched a nationwide ART funding program in June 2024, aiming to improve access to infertility treatment and mitigate population decline. This study assesses the expected demographic and economic impact of the program during its initial years, with a focus on treatment outcomes, cost-effectiveness, and return on investment (ROI). Material and methods: This study analyzed data from the first 7 months of the program (June 2024–December 2024), encompassing 39,682 ART procedures. Projections through 2030 were constructed using epidemiological modelling, conservative assumptions regarding birth outcomes, and 3 economic valuation approaches for human life, with a base model utilizing GDP per capita and life expectancy. Results: Extrapolated estimates suggest that ∼499,060 ART procedures will be conducted by 2030, resulting in 97,533 pregnancies and around 85,829 live births. ART is projected to contribute to at least 5.3% of all births in Poland. The economic return from ART-related births, based on the base variant, is estimated at PLN 69.2 billion (USD 17.3 billion) annually, against an average public investment of PLN 0.8 billion (USD 0.2 billion). Conclusions: Public funding of ART in Poland represents a highly cost-effective demographic and economic investment. To sustain its benefits, the program requires flexible financing mechanisms, improved data infrastructure, and adherence to evidence-based practices. ART should be recognized not only as a clinical necessity but as a strategic component of national demographic policy.