A Unified Modelling Framework Combining FTA, RBD, and BowTie for Reliability Improvement

Ensuring reliability and safety is essential in complex energy systems such as wind turbines, where failures can trigger unexpected downtimes, severe incidents, and significant costs. This study proposes a hybrid BowTie-based reliability framework that integrates Fault Tree Analysis, Reliability Block Diagrams, and BowTie methodology to quantify risk and evaluate the effectiveness of safety barriers. The framework employs key reliability metrics including availability, probability of failure on demand, and probability of failure per hour, and supports scenario-based sensitivity analyses to explore redesign options. A simulation-based case study of a wind turbine generator subsystem is presented, using parameter values drawn from published reliability data. Results highlight that protective relays and automatic trip systems represent critical single points of defence, while improvements such as enhanced oil analysis and redundant dashboards reduce consequence frequency from 2.912 × 10−17 to 8.257 × 10−19 failures/h (a 97.16% reduction, nearly two orders of magnitude). Compared to conventional models, the proposed framework introduces explicit defence in depth modelling, improves computational compactness, and provides a practical decision support tool for asset managers by balancing safety and reliability. At this stage, the study should be regarded as a proof of concept that demonstrates feasibility and sets a foundation for future research and application to larger, more complex infrastructures.