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October 12, 2025Open Access

A novel modelling framework for immunity-driven epidemics of non-sterilising infections

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Authors

DSDaniel StocksATAmy ThomasLDLeón Danon

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Overview

This analysis develops a framework linking immune dynamics and viral load to predict COVID-19 epidemic patterns, suggesting implications for vaccination strategies.

Key Points

  • The framework predicts times to reinfection and individual infection counts, enhancing understanding of infection dynamics.
  • By integrating immunological data with population transmission dynamics, the model captures the impact of immune profiles on epidemics.
  • Low correlations between antibody levels and protection can lead to frequent reinfections, highlighting challenges in managing non-sterilising infections.
  • This transdisciplinary approach offers insights into irregular epidemic patterns, potentially informing improved vaccination strategies.

Cite This Study

Stocks et al. (2025) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/68ebffcfdef9fcb308ff24d8https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.10.09.25337694
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