Longitudinal analysis finds persistent seasonal effects on COVID-19 mortality in Italy, suggesting further investigation is needed.
Earlier research (2021–2024, Omicron and post Omicron dominant period) established a pronounced seasonal pattern in Italian COVID-19 deaths, with weekly mortality spiking in early winter after increases throughout summer and fall, with a subsequent decline in the late winter and spring periods. Using recent data spanning 53 weeks (late May 2024–late May 2025), a new investigation utilizing piecewise linear regression confirms the continuation of this trend. The data shows the cycle repeating precisely: mortality rose in early summer, peaked at the beginning of wither, and declined steadily through midwinter and spring, tracking the previous year’s trend. This persistence suggests a continued influence of the seasonal trend on COVID-19 mortality, necessitating further exploration into the driving factors.
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Roccetti et al. (2025) studied this question.
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