Beyond the Predator paradigm: what the Iraq and Afghan wars did (and did not) tell us about emergent drone warfare

Few debates in strategic studies today are more intense than those over drones' importance to contemporary warfare. From Ukraine War to conflict in Yemen, the utility of long endurance armed drones is under intense scrutiny. This article argues that these critiques are unsurprising and can be attributed in good part to excessive expectations generated by a paradigmatic version of drone warfare that emerged during the US-led wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Referred to here simply as the Predator paradigm, a sociotechnical vision of present and future warfare emerged, centering on the iconic US long endurance armed drone platforms of that period (first the medium altitude MQ-1 Predator and then its larger and more capable successor, the high altitude MQ-9 Reaper). Although there is little doubt that these systems were highly effective tactical instruments in these specific wars, the outsized attention given to them, then and since, created a vision of armed drones in future war that warrants correction.