Low-carbon pathways for Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) have significantly increased due to its industrialization and urbanization. In this study, five scenarios are developed to show different low-carbon pathways for the city, including two Business as Usual (BaU) and two Counter Measures (CM) scenarios for target years 2035 and 2045, respectively, in comparison with the baseline scenario in 2022. The AIM/ExSS tool is used to forecast main energy-driven factors such as socioeconomic development and transportation demand. The energy consumption and CO 2 emissions are projected for energy-related sectors such as residential, commercial, transportation, and industry. The results show that the total energy demand of HCMC increases rapidly in BaU scenarios compared to 2022, reaching around 113 ktoe in the 2035BaU scenario and nearly 325 ktoe in the 2045BaU scenario. Compared to these BaU scenarios, the total energy demand in the 2035CM and 2045CM scenarios may reduce by 38% to 44%, respectively. The reduction in energy demand also leads to a decline in CO 2 emissions, from around 445 ktCO 2 eq in 2035BaU to nearly 254 ktCO 2 eq in 2035CM (43% reduction); and from nearly 1,247 ktCO 2 eq in 2045BaU to nearly 639 ktCO 2 eq in 2045CM (49% reduction). By shifting to renewable energies, promoting energy efficiency, and implementing energy-saving programs, HCMC can reduce around 191 ktCO 2 eq in 2035 and 608 ktCO 2 eq in 2045. However, the energy intensity and CO 2 emissions intensity (per capita and GDP) of HCMC are still higher than those of other cities in Asian countries.