The Role of Export Credit Agencies in Trade Around the Global Financial Crisis: Evidence from G20 Countries

This study investigates the impact of export credit support provided by export credit agencies (ECAs) on exports among G20 countries before, during, and after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Using an augmented gravity model and the autoregressive distributed lag approach, we analyze trade flows across 17 countries over 61 quarters from 2005 to 2020. The findings reveal that export credit support has a significant influence on long-term trade dynamics, with medium-term instruments having a positive impact, while short-term instruments exhibit negative long-term effects. Notably, during the GFC, total insured export credit instruments had a negative long-term impact but a positive short-term effect. These results highlight the critical role of ECAs in managing trade during periods of economic turbulence and stability. Our study contributes to the literature by offering a dynamic understanding of ECA effectiveness under varying economic conditions and provides valuable insights for policymakers in shaping strategies for ECAs.