Quantifying Operational Uncertainty in Landing Gear Fatigue: A Hybrid Physics–Data Framework for Probabilistic Remaining Useful Life Estimation of the Cessna 172 Main Gear

Predicting the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of light aircraft landing gear is complicated by flight-to-flight variability in operational loads, particularly in sensor-free fleets that rely only on mass-and-balance records. This study develops a hybrid physics–data framework to quantify operational-load-driven uncertainty in the main landing gear strut of a Cessna 172. High-fidelity finite-element strain–life simulations were combined with a quadratic Ridge surrogate and a two-layer bootstrap to generate full probabilistic RUL distributions. The surrogate mapped five mass-and-balance inputs (fuel, front seats, rear seats, forward and aft baggage) to per-flight fatigue damage with high accuracy (R2 = 0.991 ± 0.013). At the same time, ±3% epistemic confidence bands were attached via resampling. Borgonovo’s moment-independent Δ indices were applied to incremental damage (ΔD) in this context, revealing front-seat mass as the dominant driver of fatigue variability (Δ = 0.502), followed by fuel (0.212), rear seats (0.199), forward baggage (0.141), and aft baggage (0.100). The resulting RUL distribution spanned 9 × 104 to >2 × 106 cycles, with a fleet average of 0.41 million cycles (95% CI: 0.300–0.530 million). These results demonstrate that operational levers—crew assignment, fuel loading, and baggage placement—can significantly extend strut life. Although demonstrated on a specific training fleet dataset, the methodological framework is, in principle, transferable to other aircraft or mission types. However, this would require developing a new, component-specific finite element model and retraining the surrogate using a representative set of mass and balance records from the target fleet.