Mathematical modeling of the hierarchical ordering of the most significant cybersecurity threats in the public administration system: pairwise and comparative analysis

In this work, an in-depth modeling of cybersecurity threats in state authorities was carried out, which includes the creation of a hierarchical structure, multiple expert evaluation (Delphi method) and the application of the hierarchical analysis method with pairwise comparisons. Initially, a global goal was defined — to rank threats by their degree of criticality. For this purpose, a set of criteria was formed, in particular, the scale of damage, the probability of implementation, the impact on critical resources, the complexity of countering attacks and legal consequences. Then, the experts coordinated their own assessments in several iterations. The resulting matrices of pairwise comparisons were checked for consistency and aggregated into a generalized matrix, from which the weight coefficients of the criteria and threats were calculated. The mathematical modeling performed allowed to organize threats depending on their global importance, which made it possible to determine priority areas for protecting information systems. This approach enhances the effectiveness of cybersecurity strategies, optimizes resource allocation and helps reduce the overall vulnerability of state infrastructure.